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TITLE : EFFECT OF CLIMATIC VARIABLES ON RICE YIELD AND ITS FORECAST: A STUDY USING CROP WEATHER MODELING OVER THE NORTH EASTERN ZONAL DISTRICTS OF TAMIL NADU  
AUTHORS : Veera kumar M      Stella S      Balasubramanian K.V       
ABSTRACT :

Weather parameters like temperature viz. maximum (Tx) and minimum (Tn), relative humidity (RH) in the morning (RH1) and evening (RH2) observation and weekly averaged total rainfall (RF) plays a vital role in the Crop yield. A study has been taken on the Crop yield forecast using crop weather model and about the impact of weather over the Rice yield during Rabi season for the North eastern zonal districts such as Salem, Dharmapuri, Nilgiris, Vellore and Tiruvallur. Weather parameters for the last twenty eight years (1985-2012), for the period 15th Sep to 30 Jan. have been taken for the study. Trend analyses have been done for the weather parameters viz. Tx, Tn, RH and weekly total rainfall over the region of study.

 
The study shows that during the period of study whenever the Tx and RH are in increasing trend, then the rainfall is also seen to be in increasing trend over the study region. This variability shows that there is some significant impact of Tx, RH and RF over Crop yield of Rice during the Rabi season. Increasing trend in Tx, RH and RF show increasing trend in Crop yield over the past few years. The yield forecast of rice shown from 2001 to 2009 gives significant figure of merit with the actual.
 
Keywords: Maximum Temperature (Tx), Minimum Temperature (Tn), Relative humidity in the morning observation (RH 1), Relative humidity in the evening observation (RH 2), weekly averaged total rainfall (RF), Crop yield, Co-efficient of determination (r2)
 
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